Glenigan Index: Construction Recovers from Tough Winter

A year-on-year decline in the underlying value of project starts during the three months to April 2011 masks an increase in new work from the moribund levels experienced over the turn of the year.

"An increase in the underlying value of project starts over March and April took the index to levels not seen since July. However, weakness across the industry, caused in part by reduced government spending and a faltering housing market, meant that new work was still significantly below last year." commented James Abraham, Economist at Glenigan.

Abraham added, "Glenigan recorded 21% year-on-year fall in the underlying value of new project starts during the three months to April compared with a year ago. Much of the government spending on social housing and education which boosted the industry last year is now absent."

"Private housing starts over the three months to April fell 36% compared with the same period last year. Despite an improvement over March and April on the low value of new work over the winter, the recovery is still dwarfed by the rapid gains made last spring."

Glenigan's non-residential index contracted by 14%. Abraham commented that, "While Government spending cuts ensured a modest decline in the value of education and community & amenity new work, health starts were boosted after a large hospital build commenced in Northern Ireland."

The value of retail work was also on the rise. "Supermarket chains are continuing to invest a significant amount into new premises, and April benefited from a number of such developments. By contrast, the underlying value of office starts fell by 31%, while industrial starts were 14% down. Abraham explained "despite a return to economic growth last quarter and further improvement in manufacturing figures, nervousness remains. Inflation is still well above target, and the private sector is not expecting a rapid recovery in business prospects."

The underlying value of civil engineering project starts fell by 17%. According to Abraham, "Civil engineering work is still below the level seen last spring. Like most of the construction industry, though, there has been a significant recovery compared to three months ago. Additionally, there have been some major utility and infrastructure projects starting of late, which were not picked up in the underlying trend."